Dutch Betting Formula

Posted on 4/6/202222.08.2017by admin

Making a dutching calculator in Excel is very simple. Follow this step by step approach and you will have a perfectly working calculator in a few minutes. All we need for the calculation is the amount to bet with, the odds of the outcomes and the commission rate.

The Profit Target Dutching formula can also be applied to any number of selections, providing the book percentage doesn't exceed 100%. If horse A wins, we have £2.50 x 9 = 22.50, less a losing bet of £2.50 on Horse B = £20 profit. If horse B wins, we have £2.50 x 9 = 22.50, less a losing bet.

The Dutch Betting Calculator gives the result that the $3.50 chance would need a bet of $42. A win would return $147 and the profit would be $48. If all the other bets were win bets, the remainder of the bets.
Golf, along with cricket and football, are just a number of other sports that may suit the 'Dutching' approach to betting. A patient and systematic approach is required for 'Dutching'.
Basic Instructions. Select Dutching Method. The default option is Back – Stake Available (Fixed Stake) Select Stake Available. Must be in numerical figures.

HOW TO USE DUTCHING EFFECTIVELY

Dutching is a very powerful way of trading and betting software like Bet Angel makes it very easy to do so. All you have to do is to set your total stake, pick the outcomes you want to back and click the button.

But trading software costs money and if you are a new trader then you will want to keep your expenses as low as possible. Fortunately for you, I have made a simple dutching calculator in Excel that you can download and use for free. Aren’t I nice?!

I use dutching strategies on the correct score market and on golf. These markets, especially golf, have lots of different outcomes and it is usually difficult to accurately predict which one will be the winner, especially early on.

On the correct score market, there are some score lines that are more likely than others. With a strong home favourite, we could decide to place a back bet on the home win in the match odds market, but since anything can happen in sports, we might want to hedge that bet.

We could back the draw in the match odds market, but that would mean that we would hedge unlikely score lines like 3 – 3, 4 – 4 and higher. There is no reason to waste money on such low probability events.

Also, we would then not be hedging a 0 – 1 score, which is not unlikely since any favourite can fall at home at any time. So we could hedge by backing the away team, but then we would be at risk at 0 – 0, which is also a not too unlikely score.

Instead we could hedge the original bet in the correct score market with a dutching strategy, backing only the most likely sores. Which scores to hedge depends on a lot of things like the match itself, the price of the scores and whether we want to hedge from the start of the match or wait for some odds to move.

But we would certainly want to have some money on 0 – 0, 1 – 1 and 0 – 1. And we would like to ignore the most unlikely scores like 3 – 3, 0 – 3 and any other away win. Anything in between is a matter of debate.

We could also decide if we want to dutch for a profit over-all if we lose on the match odds market or if we just want to break even if the home team doesn’t win.

This is why I like dutching, there are so many variations, both for profit and as a hedging tool. There are a few things that should be considered when dutching, but the one I think get the least attention is the back versus the lay side.

DUTCHING THE BACK V THE LAY SIDE

Take a look at the odds below of the match between Freiburg and Leverkusen in the German Bundesliga, about ten hours before kick-off.

The book percentage on the back side is 102,39% and on the lay side it is 97,68%. If we could dutch the entire book on the lay side for 100 we would make 2,37 before commission.

It is not very likely that we would get matched on the layside for every outcome before the match starts, but it is actually not impossible. I have experimented with many dutching strategies and I have managed to create a sure bet on the correct score market a few times.

But the point is, that if you are trading with a dutching strategy, you should always try to get matched on the lay side. It will not always work the whole way; some will be matched on the lay side and some will not, and you have to accept a lower price. But even a few matches on the lay side will greatly improve the over-all profitability of the system.

But sometimes you will get matched entirely on the lay side and then you are in great position. Just look at the example below where I have dutched the first six scores the way Befair orders them (0-0, 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 1-0, 1-1). Just to be clear, this is not a strategy, just an example.

With a stake of 100, the difference in profit is 10,34, after deducting a 5% commission. What do you think an increase of 10% does to a strategy over the long run? A lot! Just run some simulations and you’ll see what I mean.

DUTCHING CALCULATOR IN EXCEL

Even though Bet Angel has the ultimate dutching tool, I still use my own dutching calculator in Excel. I use it mostly for trying out different scenarios and test strategies. When I trade, using a dutching strategy, I use Bet Angel since it is a much more advanced tool.

In the spreadsheet that accompanies this article you find a version of my dutching calculator that I use for the correct score market. It will work just as well with any market though, so feel free to adapt it to your own trading.

But if you want to build your own from scratch, then it is fairly easy to do so. All we need to make a dutching calculator are the odds of all the different outcomes in the market and the amount we want to bet with and the commission rate. The rest we can calculate.

So here is a brief tutorial of how to make a simple dutching calculator in Excel for the match odds market.

Start with a blank sheet and enter the following:

The next thing we need to do is to calculate the probability of each event (according to the market). The formula for turning the odds into probability is [1/odds]. So in cell E6 write [ =1/C6 ] and copy this through cell F8. You can format it how you like, I think we need four decimals.

We also need the sum of the probabilities, so in cell E9 put in the formula: [ =sum(E6:E9) ] and copy to F9.

Dutch Betting Calculator

Now we have what we need to calculate the stake for each event. The formula for the dutching stake is [ (probability of the outcome/the sum of all the probabilities) * the total stake ]. In our example it will be:

Home win stake = (0.2000/1.0040)*100
Away win stake = (0.5714/1.0040)*100
Draw stake = (0.2326/1.0040)*100

In cell G6, enter this formula [ =(E6/E$9)*$C$2 ], and copy through cell H8. Now we have the stakes for both the back and the lay side. If you copy the formula in cell F9 through cell H9, you will see that it will be equal to the stake set in cell C2.

Next, we must calculate how much we can win on each outcome. In cell I6 enter the formula [ =(G6*C6)-$C$2 ] and copy it through cell J8.

Now we can see the difference between dutching the whole book on the back side versus the lay side, not including commission. That is very nice and informative, but let’s make it a bit more useful. We want to make it so that we can try out different what-if scenarios and also take the commission into account.

We want to manually enter the odds, so in cells L6 through L8, we start by entering the back odds from column C. Then we turn them into probabilities, but now we must account for the fact that we might not want one of the outcomes in our calculation. Enter [ =IF(L6=””,””,1/L6) ] in cell M6 and copy down through cell M8.

If we now leave one of the cells in column L blank, the corresponding cell in column M will also be blank. In cell M9 enter [ =sum(M6:M8) ].

To calculate the stake, only if we have entered the odds in column L, enter [ =IF(L6=””,””,(M6/$M$9)*$C$2) ] in cell N6, and copy down through N8. If there are no odds entered, this cell will also be blank. And don’t forget to lock cells M9 and C2 with dollar signs.

To calculate the profit after commission, select cell O6 and enter [ =IF(L6=””,$C$2*(-1),((N6*L6)-$C$2)*(1-$C$3)) ], and copy down through cell O8.

Now we have something that we can play around with. By simply changing the odds in cells L6 through L8 we can test different scenarios and find out what odds we might need in order to have a profitable strategy.

This is of course a very basic dutching calculator, but I thought I’d just take you through the steps for those of you who are interested. I have included this basic calculator in the spreadsheet, and you can play around with it as much as you want. A bit of formatting makes it nicer to look at.

THE SPREADSHEET

In the spreadsheet accompanying this article, there are three different dutching calculators. The Basic Calculator is the one we just created above. It has its limitations since it only account for three different outcomes, and there is no practical use in dutching such a market. If you wanted to dutch the home team and the draw, then laying the away team would be much simpler.

But you can build on this simple calculator to account for as many outcomes as you want. Use it as a starting point if you want to make your own dutching calculator.

THE MANUAL CALCULATOR

This dutching calculator is a bit more useful. I have used the correct score market as an example as it is the market that I dutch, but you can change it to any market you want of course.

It is divided into two parts. The first one shows what the result would be if the entire market were dutched on both the back and the lay side. This is of course not necessary but I find it useful so I decided to include it.

The second part is where you can pick the outcomes you want to dutch and if you want to accept the market odds or set your own.

What you do is that you enter the total amount you want to bet in cell K2 and your commission rate in cell K3. Then you enter the market odds in cells C7 through D25.

Then you move on to selecting with outcomes you want to dutch by ticking the box. The outcomes that you don’t pick are greyed out for clarity.

You can choose if you want to use the back or the odds you want to use for the calculation.

In cells M7 through M25 you can enter your own odds. If you do, the odds you entered will take precedence and the stake and profit is recalculated.

The sheet is locked so that you don’t accidentally overwrite some formulas, but there is no password so you can unlock the sheet if you want to make any changes. There are also some hidden columns with formulas.

THE BET ANGEL CALCULATOR

This calculator is the same as the manual one except that you don’t have to enter the odds yourself. Connect the Bet Angel worksheet to Bet Angel and the odds are linked to the market. You can still select the scores you want to dutch and also overwrite any odds you want.

One thing to note here is that sometimes an outcome will have no odds on Betfair if there are no one who wants to back or lay at that level. This is most usual on the other score lines. This will cause an error since neither the stake nor the profit can be calculated. If you don’t intend to dutch that particular score line, then it doesn’t matter, it will work as normal.

If you do intend to dutch it however, and mark the check box, it will cause an error. To get around this all you have to do is to enter a manual odds so that the calculator has a number to work with.

WHAT THESE CALCULATORS WILL NOT DO

Bet Angel has a feature which lets you enter a profit target instead of a total stake. With my calculators you have to use trial and error, and change the total stake instead to see how much you need to bet to get your profit target.

Bet Angel also lets you over-ride the profit target on any single score line. A nice, handy feature actually, but that is not included here.

Dutching Calculator

I use Swedish version of excel, they should not cause a problem if you open it in another version, but it something to be aware of.

When I built this spreadsheet, I was experimenting with other themes so the colours of the screenshots might, or might not, be the same when you open it on your computer.